Carson City, Nevada Housing Market Update: Low Inventory Fails to Deter Buyers in March 4, 2023

Carson City, Nevada Housing Market Update – March 4, 2023

Welcome to the Carson City, Nevada Housing Market Update for March 4, 2023. Inventory in the Carson City marketplace is nearing the lows last seen in the height of the COVID market, but buyers aren’t discouraged. How come?

Let’s dive in. 

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Carson City, Nevada Houses 

The median sales price for a single-family home in Carson City, Nevada is $450,000 – down 9.5% from this time last year. At one point there was an assumption that number could reach into the 20% range, but with the current state of inventory, that’s going to be very tough. Compared to historical data, those of us in the real estate industry were expecting a more balanced marketplace and more homes selling. That is just not happening. Sellers aren’t selling and that is throwing off projections of how much lower prices are going to get. This changes a lot of things. We may be starting to hit the final changes in prices. Lack of inventory and buyers needing to buy is creating upward pressure on the marketplace. Carson City is pretty level, which is very different from other US cities as well as that of the Reno and Sparks markets. There really wasn’t the same bubble experienced last year where we saw that continuing to decline. 

Median Sales Price

The median sales price in Carson City is averaging around $450,000. There’s just no new inventory hitting the market since the spike we saw after the new year. New listings are at the root of the problem. Simply put, there is nothing to replace the absorption of inventory. In order to see some reasonable double-digit inventory numbers, we need sellers (who have been waiting for all the snow to melt) to get their homes on the market as soon as possible. Sellers should seriously consider taking advantage of the minimal competition, because who knows who else is going to sell when the weather warms up.

Homes Under Contract

Only six homes went “pending” in Carson City this week. Keep in mind, we do have low data, but in week over week comparison the market is pretty level. There was an increase at the start of the year when new inventory hit the marketplace (possibly at new prices), then some back and forth. Overall, though, it’s level. 

Active Inventory 

Right now, there are properties available for buyers to make offers on. As mentioned before in other market updates, listed houses aren’t expiring or being withdrawn. The absorption we are seeing is that of buyers and sellers reaching agreements, homes going under contract. It’s been a slippery slope ever since October at the height of inventory. But even with increasing mortgage interest rates that are now hovering around the 7% mark, sellers have been understanding and willing to negotiate with buyers. Houses are not sitting on the marketplace. Sometimes it takes some time to find the correct price, but the average time on market is on a downward trajectory. That’s what is keeping the market active even though rates have been changing. 

Percentage of List Price

Carson City sellers are seeing sales prices that are 96% of asking price. Once again, this shows us how reasonable sellers are in this marketplace. Remember, though, this number can also include closing cost – a very common request that sellers have been obliged to agree to. Not every time, but a large portion of escrows are including a closing cost credit – so upwards of 3% concessions to help buyers with their upfront cash to close. What does that prove? It proves that sellers are absolutely willing to negotiate to get their home sold. On average, they’ve been accepting offers within 4% of their asking price. That’s a good thing for buyers to keep in mind – if their plan is to offer 20% below asking price, they will likely get rejected. This also shows that a really effective strategy would perhaps be to negotiate within that 5% range – that leaves some potential for a bit of wiggle room. Buyers shouldn’t hesitate to get the conversation going, expect some counter offers, and work toward finding agreements. 

Weeks of Inventory

Very much a reflection of the downward trend of available homes for sale on the market, Carson has currently 12.3 weeks of inventory. Inventory that did exist was very quickly absorbed, leading to tightened supply. However, Carson City has weeks more than some markets – like what we’re seeing in Reno and Sparks. Any time we see inventory fall below 22 weeks it is deemed a seller’s market. Inventory is being absorbed and not replaced by new homes for sale. What does that mean for potential sellers? It means it’s a great time to get their home on the market. Forget about the snow. It’s not deterring buyers. Unless there’s enough flooding on the street to prevent parking a car, buyers don’t seem to care. They’re out there, happy to look at available homes, rain or shine. 

Median Days on Market 

The median days on market for a home in Carson City is currently 36 days. At one point we were nearing a couple of months on the market. This downward trend makes sense as inventory continues to decline, and buyer demand remains strong – despite rising interest rates. As landlords continue to hammer tenants with high rent costs, folks are instead pursuing homeownership. Ownership has become increasingly attractive to today’s buyers – especially those who have refinancing in mind as a part of their strategy. Many buyers we’ve spoken with have a five to seven-year refinancing plan – all depending on rates hitting a point that is amenable. Most market cycles don’t take long to adjust, which is why everyone is modeling around that right now. 

Unsold Inventory 

Make no mistake, sellers want to work with buyers. No properties are expiring and none are being withdrawn. The properties that are hitting the marketplace are selling. That doesn’t always mean that they have the right price at the very start. What it does show is buyers taking advantage of existing inventory. Perhaps there is a property a buyer looked at in the weeks prior that was outside of their range. Now would be a great time for that same buyer to revisit that property if it’s been sitting, negotiate with the sellers. Sellers in the Carson City market are serious. They want to sell – for a multitude of reasons and varying circumstances. Potential sellers should take that into consideration as well. Low inventory means low competition. As it stands, that leaves current sellers with an incredible advantage.

In summary, 

present inventory in Carson City is nearing the lows of the COVID market, and demand is as strong as ever. High rental cost is inspiring folks to seek the more affordable alternative of homeownership. Increasing interest rates aren’t discouraging buyers who have a refinancing strategy and sellers have been understanding about the current cost of money – leading to more successful agreements between the two.